The Chinese Wine Market in 2026: Trends and Consumption

Macroeconomic Trends and Overview of the Chinese Wine Market

The Chinese wine market is facing a slowdown in consumption and a structural shift in purchasing habits. After two decades of rapid growth, wine consumption in China has been declining since 2018. According to the International Organization of Vine and Wine (OIV), Chinese consumption fell from approximately 17.9 million hectoliters in 2017 to about 6.8 million hectoliters in 2023. Several factors explain this trend: the post-pandemic economic slowdown, declining consumer confidence following the real estate surplus crisis, growing competition from other alcohol categories—notably baijiu and premium beer—as well as a generational shift in consumer preferences. Indeed, wine’s share of China’s overall alcohol market has declined after peaking in 2017—when it had risen from 1% to 4% over fifteen years—to 1.3% in 2023. Young urban Chinese now prefer beverages perceived as more accessible, such as cocktails, imported spirits, or low-alcohol drinks.

At the same time, the market structure continues to evolve due to import dynamics and changes in distribution. Trade tensions between China and certain wine-producing countries have notably reshaped the supplier landscape. This situation has opened up opportunities for other exporting countries, notably France, Chile, Italy, and Spain. France thus remains one of the leading suppliers by value, driven by the strong reputation of its appellations.

China remains one of the world’s largest wine markets, with growth projected to exceed $74 billion by 2033—a level that would make China the world’s largest wine market. From 2025 to 2033, the market is expected to grow at an average annual rate (CAGR) of 10.5%, indicating steady growth in value over the medium term.[1]

Challenges and Opportunities for Wine Exporters in China

Evidence of Growth: Potential for Increased Alcohol Consumption

Certain factors point to future growth in the Chinese wine market, as China is still far below the global average for per capita alcohol consumption (See the recent article The Chinese Wine Market: Recent Shocks, Long-Term Outlook published in the Journal of Wine Economics)[2].

The Rise of Domestic Wine Production in China

In the early 2000s, massive investments and rising per capita wine consumption led to rapid development of the domestic wine industry, particularly in Shandong and Ningxia provinces.

However, despite the boom in Chinese wine production in the early 2000s, growth began to slow after 2013. Conversely, consumption of imported wine has continued to rise since that year, increasing from 19.1% of total alcohol consumption in China to 53.7% in 2023. [3]

Political Uncertainty and Fluctuations in Wine Imports to China: Volatile Market Shares

The Chinese wine market is highly dependent on political statements, policies, and taxation. The introduction of unilateral tariffs has contributed to fluctuations in the sources of imported wine in China. In 2021, China banned imports of Australian wine. France then filled the void left by Australian wines, allowing it to increase its market share by nearly 50%. However, this effect was short-lived, as the French market share returned to its pre-2021 level once Australian imports resumed in 2024.

Consumption habits: younger, more discerning customers seeking new tasting experiences

Chinese wine consumers are getting younger, with most aged 30 to 49, and their consumption behavior is heavily influenced by digital advertising.

They are seeking new tasting experiences and prefer more modern, youthful brands. Chinese instant retail channels, such as e-commerce platforms (Tmall, JD.com, Pinduoduo, etc.) or social media mini-programs (WeChat, Douyin), are now essential for engaging with Chinese consumers. Live streaming and key opinion leaders (KOLs) play an important role in brand awareness and shaping consumer behavior.

Their preferences have shifted from traditional dry red wine to more diverse wine types. According to the Pro Wine Business Report 2025, most of the merchants surveyed (52%) expect a decline in sales of imported still wines by 2027, while forecasting growing popularity for sparkling wines. For 2027, producers and merchants surveyed by Pro Wine forecast the strongest overall sales performance for low-alcohol or alcohol-free wines, dry still white wines, and sparkling wines.[4]Nevertheless, demand for high-end, well-established imported brands persists, as Chinese consumers become increasingly knowledgeable about wine.

Beyond wine, Chinese consumers are also seeking new taste experiences. Innovative and concept-driven bars are growing in popularity and are becoming a key distribution channel for imported wines.

Targeting new young customers, creating new tasting experiences, and promoting a digital cultural narrative: strategic outlook for 2026

The 2025 Pro Wine China Report highlights three essential growth factors for the wine market in China:

• Targeting new consumers, particularly younger generations,
• Creating new tasting experiences,
• Promoting a digital cultural narrative that resonates with the public.

Selling wine in China requires agility. Success depends on adapting channels, communication, and marketing to highlight storytelling rooted in local culture and aligned with key moments of the year or holidays (find the main holidays and celebrations to know in China in our article “Traditional and Commercial Holidays in China: Public Holidays, Vacations, and Business Opportunities in 2026”).

Creativity is also essential for designing an innovative and memorable experience for an audience constantly seeking novelty and lasting impressions.

Sources:

[1] Size and Outlook of the Chinese Wine Market, 2033

[2] Anderson K. China’s wine market: Recent shocks, long-term prospects. Journal of Wine Economics. 2025;20(4):291-305. doi:10.1017/jwe.2025.10070 The Chinese Wine Market: Recent Shocks, Long-Term Prospects | Journal of Wine Economics | Cambridge Core

[3] Xingxing Verification | Industrial Research Database (hanghangcha.com)

[4] Young consumers breathe new life into China’s slowing wine market (yicaiglobal.com)